OECD GDP grows by 0.4% in the fourth quarter of 2023

 

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21 Feb 2024 - Gross domestic product (GDP) in the OECD rose by 0.4% in the fourth quarter of 2023 according to provisional estimates (Figure 1). Quarterly OECD GDP growth rates have remained weak over the past two years (Table 1).

In the G7, quarter-on-quarter GDP growth slowed slightly to 0.4% in Q4 2023 compared with 0.5% in Q3. This reflects a mixed picture among G7 countries. On the one hand, GDP contracted in the United Kingdom (-0.3%) and Japan (-0.1%) for the second quarter in a row. GDP also contracted in Germany (-0.3%) following two quarters of zero growth. Growth slowed in the United States (to 0.8% in Q4, compared with 1.2% in Q3), and France recorded zero growth for the second quarter in a row. On the other hand, the Canadian economy saw a recovery, with growth of 0.3% in Q4 following a contraction in Q3. Growth in Italy picked up slightly to 0.2%.

In the G7 countries experiencing negative growth in Q4 2023, the contributing factors varied. In the United Kingdom, falling exports of services (-6.0%) were the main drag on growth. In Japan, GDP contracted due primarily to decreases in investment (-0.3%), private consumption (-0.2%) and government consumption (-0.1%), which were partially offset by an 11.3% increase in services exports (mainly due to growth of tourism). In Germany, Q4 saw a marked decline in investment in construction and machinery and equipment.

Among other OECD countries for which data is available, Costa Rica and Norway recorded the strongest GDP growth in Q4 (1.8% and 1.5% respectively), followed by Slovenia (1.1%). By contrast, GDP contracted most in Ireland (-0.7%).

Initial annual estimates indicate that OECD GDP growth slowed to 1.6% in 2023 compared with 2.9% in 2022, in a context of higher core inflation^[1] in OECD area (Figure 2). Among the 27 OECD countries for which data is available, 10 recorded a GDP contraction in 2023, with Estonia contracting the most (-3.0%). In 14 countries, growth slowed but remained positive. Only 3 OECD countries recorded higher growth in 2023 than in 2022: Costa Rica (5.1% in 2023, compared with 4.6% in 2022), the United States (2.5%, compared with 1.9%) and Japan (1.9%, compared with 1.0%).

 

 

  

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