12/03/2024 - Romania’s economy has performed well in recent years, driving living standards higher and supporting convergence with OECD countries, but high inflation has put a drag on households’ purchasing power, according to the latest OECD Economic Survey of Romania.

The OECD is expecting Romania’s GDP to grow by 3.1% in 2024 and 3.3% in 2025, up from 2.0% in 2023. High levels of investment will support the economy together with recovering external demand, while cost pressures on households gradually ease. Inflation has fallen from its peak of 16.8% in November 2022 during the energy crisis to 7.4% in January 2024, but underlying price pressures in the economy remain strong. Headline inflation is projected to continue declining to 5.0% in 2024 and 3.7% in 2025.

Strengthening government finances through higher tax revenues and improvements to the efficiency of public spending is needed to keep public debt at manageable levels and to create space for growing spending pressures, such as from population ageing and the green transition. Fiscal consolidation is needed to decrease the budget deficit while it would also contribute to support restrictive monetary policy by reducing demand pressures at a time of high inflation.

Reinforcing public governance and the rule of law will be important to improve the business climate and foster productivity. While reforms are gradually reducing firms’ regulatory burdens, corruption and policy uncertainty create challenges for many businesses. A well-resourced Anti-Corruption Directorate remains essential, and the Survey recommends full implementation of reinforced governance arrangements for state-owned businesses and addressing barriers to finance for small firms.

“Romania’s strong economic performance has kept average incomes rising. Romania’s gap in living standards with the OECD average halved between 2000 and 2022. The immediate task for macroeconomic policy now is to tame inflation, which remains well above target, through coordinated restrictive monetary and fiscal policy,” OECD Secretary-General Mathias Cormann said, presenting the Survey in Bucharest alongside Prime Minister Marcel Ciolacu. “While new tax measures will help address revenue shortfalls, more ambitious reforms are needed to curb fiscal imbalances, support growth and address inequalities of income. Structural reform momentum from the Recovery and Resilience Plan should help, if sustained, as would further reforms to remove barriers to investment and to increase workforce participation levels.”

Higher pension ages will mitigate fiscal pressure from population ageing. However, government revenues remain too limited to fund emerging spending priorities. A digital tax administration is needed to tackle evasion and lift tax revenues. Other priorities are to shift more goods and services onto Romania’s standard value-added tax rate and eliminate distortive and unfair income tax expenditures.

Labour force participation has not risen enough to make up for outflows of working-age Romanians abroad. Women are underrepresented in the workforce. Generous parental leave encourages mothers to step back from work to care for children. Childcare shortages also make it harder for young families to keep up two jobs. Better availability of formal early childhood education and childcare would make it easier for parents to return to work after having children. Continued investments in teacher training and schools are also needed to improve educational outcomes, with more help better targeted to those in vulnerable communities.

Net greenhouse gas emissions must decline by a quarter this decade to get on track for carbon neutrality by 2050. Achieving this without stalling progress towards higher living standards calls for cost-effective and fair climate policies. Accelerating the roll-out of renewable energy production is necessary to remain in line with the commitment to phase-out coal-based energy. Electricity grids must be upgraded for increased generation of renewable power, with strong price signals to encourage energy savings. Support for energy-efficient renovations and better transport systems are needed as well as retraining for workers losing jobs in Romania’s transition to a low-carbon economy.

The Survey comes as Romania is in the process of accession to the OECD. The overarching objective of the accession process is to promote convergence with OECD standards, best policies and practices, with a view to improving outcomes for Romania and its citizens.

See an Overview of the Economic Survey of Romania with key findings and charts (this link can be used in media articles).

For further information, journalists are invited to contact the OECD Media Office (+33 1 45 24 97 00).

 

 

Note to Editors:

The Paris-based OECD is an international organisation that promotes policies to improve the economic and social well-being of people worldwide. Working with member and partner countries, it provides a forum where governments can work together to share experiences and seek solutions to economic, social and governance challenges.

The OECD’s 38 member countries are: Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Czechia, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Israel, Italy, Japan, Korea, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Mexico, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Poland, Portugal, the Slovak Republic, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Türkiye, the United Kingdom and the United States.

On 25 January 2022, the OECD Council decided to open accession discussions with Romania as well as five other countries (Argentina, Brazil, Bulgaria, Croatia and Peru). On 10 June 2022, the Council at Ministerial Level adopted the Roadmap for the Accession Process of Romania [C/MIN(2022)25/FINAL], setting out the terms, conditions and process for the accession of Romania. In accordance with this Roadmap, 26 OECD technical committees, composed of expert policy-makers from each of the 38 OECD Members, will conduct an in-depth assessment of Romania’s legislation, policies and practices against OECD legal instruments and OECD best policies and practices covering multiple areas of government policy, including economic policy but also labour market and social policy, education, and health.

The overarching objective of the OECD accession process is to promote Romania’s convergence with OECD standards, best policies and best practices, resulting in better outcomes for OECD Members as well as for Romania and its citizens. Throughout the accession process, the OECD will work closely with Romania to support the adoption of long-lasting reforms for this purpose. The Economic Survey of Romania was discussed at a meeting of the Economic and Development Review Committee (EDRC) on 16 January 2024 and is published on the responsibility of the Secretary-General of the OECD. The cut-off date for data used in the Survey is 1 March 2024. The previous Survey of Romania was issued in January 2022. Information on other Surveys and how they are prepared is available at www.oecd.org/surveys.

Publication of this document, and the analysis and recommendations contained therein, do not prejudge in any way the results of the review of Romania by the Economic Development Review Committee as part of its process of accession to the OECD.

 

 

 

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