The fragmentation of conflict networks in North and West Africa
African armed conflicts involve a myriad of state forces, rebel groups and extremist
organisations bound by rapidly changing alliances and rivalries. Organisations that
were allies one day can fight each other the next and co-operate later still. The
objective of this note is to update the pioneer work on conflict networks conducted
by the OECD Sahel and West Africa Club (SWAC) in the region by using a formal approach
to networks known as dynamic social network analysis. Leveraging a dataset of 3 800
actors and 60 000 violent events from the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project
(ACLED) from 1997-2023, the note monitors how the co-operative and rivalrous ties
between violent actors have changed over time, both at the regional and local levels.
The growing number of belligerents, increasing density of rivalrous relationships
and growing polarisation of the conflict networks observed in this note are extremely
worrying for the future of the region. Not only do they make peaceful efforts more
difficult than ever, but they also contribute to increasing the number of potential
victims among the civilian population.
Published on March 09, 2024Also available in: French
In series:West African Papersview more titles