Fertile Futures
Scenario Analysis on the Interconnected Dynamics of Fertiliser and Agricultural Markets
Fertilisers are crucial components of food systems, with impacts beyond agricultural
markets. This study utilises the OECD-FAO Aglink-Cosimo model to examine the intricate
interplay between fertiliser markets, policies, and their repercussions on agricultural
markets, food security, and environmental sustainability over the medium term. Two
distinct scenario analyses reveal significant insights. The first scenario shows that
while short-term disruptions in fertiliser supply can be mitigated by existing stocks,
prolonged deficits will increase global food prices by up to 6%, posing long-term
threats to agriculture. In the second scenario, the removal of fertiliser subsidies
in India leads to reduced domestic use, resulting in decreased agricultural production
and exports coupled with increased imports. Although this will cause a modest 0.8%
increase in global food prices, it will substantially cut agricultural greenhouse
gas emissions by 7 million tonnes of CO2 equivalent, highlighting the pivotal role
of domestic policies in attaining global environmental sustainability goals.
Available from April 24, 2024
In series:OECD Food, Agriculture and Fisheries Papersview more titles