Environmental indicators, modelling and outlooks

OECD Technical Expert Workshop on Modelling the Impact on Circular Economy and Low Carbon Transitions of the Covid-19 Recovery Packages

The ongoing Covid-19 pandemic has caused the worst economic contraction since the Great Depression, with, at times, more than a third of the global population being placed on lockdown. Those numerous lockdowns and measures enacted by national and local governments to ensure public health have put a substantial strain on economic activity, especially on the energy-related, construction, tourism, and mobility sectors. The recession has also had meaningful environmental implications. The unprecedented sharp fall in both demand and supply has led to a significant reduction in global environmental pressure, and some of these consequences are projected to last for a long time.

To tackle this economic crisis, OECD governments have allocated or are contemplating billions of dollars to Covid-19 recovery packages. These funds can potentially be used to facilitate the transition to a low-carbon, circular economy. To investigate the relationship between the post Covid-19 economic recovery and the transition to a resource-efficient and circular economy, the OECD organised the Technical Expert Workshop on Modelling the Impact on Circular Economy and Low Carbon Transitions of the Covid-19 Recovery Packages in April 2021. The workshop was structured around four sessions that were spread over two days. The first two sessions discussed the quantification of the impacts of Covid-19 and Covid-19 recovery packages on the economy (session 1) and their implications on environmental pressure, climate change and the transition to a circular economy (session 2). Session 3 considered the incentives for a green recovery and policy options for stimulating green elements in recovery packages. The final session consisted of a panel of experts that brainstormed modelling approaches to assessing green recovery packages. The workshop finished with a summary of key take-aways of the workshop, and explored potential follow-up activities. The workshop was organised by the OECD with financial support from the European Union.

Summary Report

Full Agenda 

Agenda

Day 1: 13 April 2021

Welcome and Opening Remarks: aims, expectations and structure of workshop:

Shardul Agrawala, OECD 

Scene-setting presentation: Modelling large socio-economic shocks in CGE models

Moderator: Shardul Agrawala, OECD 

Presenter (15min):

• Valentina Bosetti, Bocconi University [Presentation]
  

Discussion (15min)

Session 1 - The impacts of Covid-19 on the environment and the transition to a circular and low-carbon economy 

Moderator: Elisa Lanzi, OECD 

Presenters:

• Hector Pollitt, Cambridge Econometrics [Presentation]
• Bas van Ruijven, IIASA [Presentation]
• Dominique van der Mensbrugghe, Purdue University [Presentation]

Discussion (30 min)

Session 2 - Quantifying the impacts of recovery packages on economic activity

Moderator: Frank van Tongeren, OECD 

Presenters:

• Christine Arriola, OECD [Presentation]
• Rob Dellink, OECD [Presentation]
• Edward Barbier, Colorado State University [Presentation]

Discussion (30min)

Day 2: 14 April 2021

Session 3 - Incentivising green recovery and the transition to a more circular economy

Moderator: Peter Börkey, OECD 

Presenters:

• Brian O’Callaghan, Oxford University [Presentation]
• Jocelyn Bleriot, Ellen MacArthur Foundation [Presentation]
• Theodoros Zachariadis, Cyprus Institute [Presentation]

Discussion (30min)

Session 4 - Assessing the greenness and circularity of recovery packages: Brainstorming ideas on modelling

Moderator: Asa Johansson, OECD 

Panel discussion with short opening statements (5min each):

• Valentina Bosetti, Bocconi University 
  
• Jan Brusselaers, Vito
• Alvaro Calzadilla, UCL
• Reyer Gerlagh, Tilburg University [Presentation]
• Satoshi Kojima, IGES
• Alex Marten, US-EPA
• Matthias Weitzel, JRC

Discussion (30min)

Wrap-up of the workshop 

Summary conclusions by Stephen White (European Commission) and Rob Dellink (OECD).