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Norway Economic Snapshot

Economic Forecast Summary (December 2020)

The recovery from a decline in mainland output of 3.2% in 2020 will be muted by continued localised restrictions to tackle COVID-19 outbreaks, weak oil-sector investment and continued disruption to travel, hospitality and related sectors. Real mainland GDP is projected to increase by 3.1% in 2021 and 1.4% in 2022. Labour market recovery will be correspondingly slow and consumer price inflation will remain muted. Diminished need for restrictions as an effective vaccine is rolled out, and associated pick-ups in hard hit sectors and rising confidence, will contribute to output growth in 2022.

The scale and timing of the monetary and fiscal policy response to COVID-19 has remained broadly appropriate. The fiscal rule that links mainland deficits to wealth-fund returns should remain firmly in place as it allows ample room to support the recovery while also providing long-term fiscal guidance. Recovery will be helped by measures proposed in the national budget 2021 to encourage further return to work, strengthen the business environment and encourage green growth.

 

Economic Survey of Norway (December 2019)

 

Executive Summary

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