Growth will moderate to 2.7% in 2022 and 2.5% in 2023. Consumption is set to strengthen, though with a drag from high inflation. From early 2023, growth will pick up due to strong investment and exports, as current uncertainties are assumed to abate. Elevated household debt and housing prices, and stronger than expected interest rate increases pose downside risks to domestic demand. A potential shortage of rare gases sourced from Russia and Ukraine could weaken semiconductor exports.
The pandemic highlighted vulnerabilities of the dual labour market and a weak social safety net. A welfare reform needs to be coupled with policies aimed at increasing employment and job quality, especially for women and older workers, who are often in non-regular jobs and the most affected by the crisis. A more flexible labour market would allow workers to move more easily from crisis-hit sectors to growing industries.
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2021 Structural Reform Priorities