Publications & Documents

This study investigates the capacity of governments to reallocate spending across different functions of the government. It mobilises the COFOG dataset for the period 1996 - 2017, which allows comparing public spending mixes at detailed levels in ways that are consistent across countries and over time. Three main empirical findings are established. Firstly, countries differ in their propensity to reallocate public spending across functions and countries that reallocate more are also countries with sounder governance and tighter fiscal rules in place. Secondly, obstacles to reallocation are identified, with governments avoiding nominal cuts, especially in health and social expenditures. Thirdly, while the analysis underlines some degree of convergence among OECD countries in terms of public spending allocation, this convergence is not universal. A cluster of Nordic countries persists, and Greece is identified as diverging from the rest of countries included in the sample.

High employment growth has sustained Israel’s high GDP growth in recent decades, but demographic change and labour market duality put future growth at risk. Policy action is required to stimulate employment and raise labour productivity, especially among population groups with weaker labour market outcomes. A particular concern is closing employment gaps of Haredim and Arab Israelis and ensuring gender equality in the workplace, which would simultaneously improve opportunities for all Israelis and the aggregate labour productivity of the economy. This will require setting appropriate work incentives and providing better support for working parents; improving skills at all stages of the learning cycle; as well as increasing mobility and improving reallocation towards high-productivity jobs and firms, in particular in the high-tech sector.

As countries seek to draw lessons the COVID-19 crisis and increase their future resilience, evaluations are important tools to understand what worked or not, why and for whom. This report builds on the OECD work on 'government evaluations of COVID-19 responses'. It evaluates Belgium’s responses to the pandemic in terms of risk preparedness, crisis management, as well as public health, education, economic and fiscal, and social and labour market policies. Preserving the country’s resilience in the future will require promoting trust in public institutions and whole-of-government approaches to crisis management, reducing inequalities, and preserving the fiscal balance. The findings and recommendations of this report will provide guidance to public authorities in these efforts.

This paper describes the latest update of the OECD’s long-term scenarios, which are done every 2-3 years to quantify some of the most important long-term macroeconomic trends and policy challenges facing the global economy. For the first time, this update incorporates the effect of the low-carbon energy transition. The study first presents a baseline projection that acts as a business-as-usual scenario against which the economic effects of the transition can be gauged. Next, it outlines extensions to the OECD global long-term model (LTM) to consider energy use and associated CO2 emissions and describes an alternative stylised scenario in which OECD and non-OECD G20 countries successfully transition to low-carbon energy in a way broadly consistent with a net-zero target for greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. These extensions rely on a variety of sources, but most crucially on simulations of CO2 mitigation costs with the OECD’s ENV-Linkages model. Finally, the model’s extensions are used to explore some fiscal implications of the energy transition, in particular how the negative economic effects of carbon mitigation could be alleviated by fiscal or other structural reforms.

The paper contributes to renewed debates about industrial policy in the context of recent initiatives in several OECD economies. It discusses the pros and cons of industrial policies motivated by environmental, national security and place-based/inclusiveness objectives. The paper also considers implementation and design issues, and how to respond to industrial policies in foreign countries. Despite well-grounded economic, social and environmental justifications for some industrial policies, there are legitimate concerns that the benefits of some of these policies could be limited and the costs high. This mainly relates to measures curbing competition and the practical and political challenges in designing and implementing effective measures. Thus, while governments may want to experiment with future and welfare-oriented industrial policies, they should exert moderation in scope, exercise caution in design and implementation, and be mindful of possible negative international implications.

This paper investigates the link between gender diversity in senior management and firm-level productivity. For this purpose, it constructs a novel cross-country dataset with information on firms’ senior management group and other firm characteristics, covering both publicly listed and unlisted firms in manufacturing and non-financial market services across nine OECD countries. The main result from the analysis is that productivity gains from increasing gender diversity in senior management are highest among firms with low initial diversity. Increasing the female share to the sample average of 20% in firms with initially lower shares would increase aggregate productivity by around 0.6%. This suggests that improving women’s access to senior management positions matters not only for equity but could yield significant productivity gains.

Raising productivity growth is central to closing the gap with the incomes and well-being enjoyed in many OECD countries. Croatia has internationally competitive firms, and a dynamic economy with many young and potentially productive firms. However, overall performance has been limited by the presence of many less productive firms and more productive firms that often fail to grow. This likely reflects a business environment that weakens competitive pressures and makes investments more costly and risky. Reducing the burdens of lengthy and unpredictable regulatory procedures, resolving legal disputes faster with a more efficient judicial system, and improving public sector integrity, will be key for boosting productivity growth. Developing public equity markets and expanding R&D support would improve access to finance for young and innovative firms. State-owned enterprises play a comparatively large role in Croatia’s economy but tend to underperform financially and in delivering goods and services. Improving their governance, by strengthening the state’s oversight and governance arrangements, can improve outcomes. This Working Paper relates to the 2023 OECD Economic Survey of Croatia.

Using data on more than 150.000 non-financial companies operating in both manufacturing and services sectors around the world, we analyse the drivers of firm performance throughout the whole COVID cycle (until end 2021). We highlight three key results. First, if anything, larger and older firms did worse than smaller and younger ones in terms of revenues and investment spending, both during COVID-19 and the subsequent recovery. Even in sectors that were under scrutiny from a competition standpoint, such as technology and healthcare, larger firms did not systematically over-perform. Second, ex-ante financial strength attenuated the effects of the shock on revenues during the COVID cycle. Third, there is some evidence of debt overhang: firms that entered the crisis with a higher leverage ratio invested less than others, including on R&D, both in 2020 and in 2021, while firms that became more debt-burdened during the pandemic tended to record weaker investment spending during the recovery. These insights shed light on market power, competition, and more generally on the performance of the corporate sector since the start of COVID-19 pandemic.

Croatia’s labour market has made important progress over the past decade. Employment rates are rising, reducing the gap with OECD countries, and poverty has fallen. While important weaknesses remain, many dimensions of equity and working conditions are similar to OECD countries. Continuing this progress is essential for Croatia’s incomes and well-being to converge with OECD countries, to counter accelerating population ageing and to make the most of emerging opportunities, including from digitalisation and the green economy transition. For employers, filling increasingly advanced skill needs is a growing obstacle. Relatively few of the young and older adults are in work – contributing to weakening skills, lower incomes and higher poverty risks. Addressing these challenges will require dramatically expanding participation in re-skilling and adult education programmes, and raising the workforce’s flexibility, for example by strengthening active labour market policies, improving the housing market’s dynamism and making the most of immigrants’ and returned emigrants’ skills. This Working Paper relates to the 2023 OECD Economic Survey of Croatia.