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  • 30-June-2021

    English

    Perspectives on Global Development 2021 - From Protest to Progress?

    Since its first edition in 2010, the OECD Development Centre's Perspectives on Global Development report has tracked development trends and policy priorities in developing countries. This new report examines the phenomenon of discontent. Between the global financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic, discontent surged around the world. It was especially evident in middle-income countries and was often most acute amongst the middle classes that have emerged in developing countries over recent decades. The report explores the economic, political and sociological drivers of discontent and argues that building back better from the COVID-19 pandemic in developing countries will require approaches that simultaneously improve citizens' well-being, promote productive transformation and strengthen social cohesion. The report concludes by examining the international dimension of discontent and demonstrates how weaknesses and imbalances in the present multilateral system are eroding humankind's capacity for collective action in the face of global threats, notably the climate crisis. The rise in discontent has exposed failings in prevailing economic, social and political models at all levels: addressing discontent means fixing these systems, and doing so in an inclusive and sustainable manner.
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  • 30-June-2021

    English

    Typology of Corruption Risks in Commodity Trading Transactions

    Commodity trading presents specific and heightened risks of corruption due to the large amount of money involved in commodity trading transactions, which are source of important revenues for developing countries, and due to the sophisticated mechanisms used to channel corrupt payments. These include complex and opaque corporate structures, the use of off-shore entities, that render the identification of beneficial owners more difficult, the use of intermediaries (including briefcase or shell companies) and joint ventures with politically exposed persons (PEPs). This report maps out corruption risks of cross-cutting relevance for the sales of oil, gas and minerals that can arise at several points in commodity trading transactions. It contributes to advancing the global transparency and accountability agenda in commodity trading, by improving understanding and raising awareness of corruption red flags and evolving corruption patterns across a wide range of stakeholders, including home jurisdictions of buying companies, trading hubs, host governments, state-owned enterprises and buying companies.

  • 29-June-2021

    English

    Strengthening Macroprudential Policies in Emerging Asia - Adapting to Green Goals and Fintech

    Many Emerging Asian countries have been refining macroprudential policies, particularly since the Global Financial Crisis. For instance, they have developed policies targeting housing markets and broadly transposed the Basel III requirements into their national legislation. In the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, policy makers now need to identify emerging vulnerabilities and their associated financial stability risks and respond with the appropriate macroprudential tools. This publication provides a detailed overview of the current macroprudential policy situation in Emerging Asian countries and explores how the macroprudential policy toolkit has evolved. The report discusses some of the most pressing challenges to financial stability, including the interaction of macroprudential policy with other policies. It also devotes special attention to macroprudential policies for emerging priorities, such as achieving green goals and updating regulatory frameworks to reflect ongoing Fintech developments. Climate change will indeed create new challenges in financial markets, while Fintech developments bring about many economic opportunities and deepen financial systems, but present a variety of novel risks requiring rapid policy responses.

  • 10-June-2021

    English

    Multi-dimensional Review of the Western Balkans - Assessing Opportunities and Constraints

    The Western Balkans region has come a long way over the last two decades in achieving economic and social progress. With a population of 17.6 million, the region today boasts a combined gross domestic product (GDP) of close to EUR 100 billion, an average GDP per capita of about EUR 5 400 and a comprehensive process of integration with the European Union. This report provides multi-dimensional assessments across the economic, social, finance, governance and environmental pillars of sustainable development for five economies of the region. The region’s location, its deep relationships with Europe and its academic tradition present many opportunities for future development, especially at a time when distances are shrinking further with digitalisation. Making the most of this potential will require collaboration in tackling challenges, which have been further exposed during the COVID-19 pandemic. Boosting competences and education, strengthening social cohesion and ensuring a green transformation towards clean energy and the valuation of the region’s natural wealth, emerge as strategic priorities. Beyond practical and financial constraints, future solutions must address considerable institutional and governance challenges that remain across the region.

  • 27-May-2021

    English

    Forecasting developing Asian economies during normal times and large external shocks: Approaches and challenges

    Predicting future economic trends appropriately is essential to economic policy making. Currently, the DSGE model approach is a benchmark economic forecasting technique widely employed. However, large external shocks, such as large-scale natural disasters and COVID-19, challenge current approaches to economic forecasting. Multiple approaches will be needed in this situation, including reduced-form model and indicator-based approaches. This paper discusses different forecasting approaches, by comparing forecasts during normal times and crisis periods. The Medium-term Projection Framework (MPF), used in the Economic Outlook for Southeast Asia, China and India series, receives particular attention. The paper also examines challenges unique to developing Asia and large external shock periods. The measurement of potential output, difficulties in modelling the credit channel, and the incorporation of Big Data pose challenges regarding developing Asian countries, and large external shocks may force deviation from assumptions of traditional frameworks such as rational expectations. Finally, this paper points out that natural disasters will be a useful proxy for large shocks in Developing Asia.

  • 26-May-2021

    English

    Financing the extension of social insurance to informal economy workers - The role of remittances

    Informal employment, defined through the lack of employment-based social protection, constitutes the bulk of employment in developing countries, and entails a level of vulnerability to poverty and other risks that are borne by all who are dependent on informal work income. Results from the Key Indicators of Informality based on Individuals and their Households database (KIIbIH) show that a disproportionately large number of middle‑class informal economy workers receive remittances. Such results confirm that risk management strategies, such as migration, play a part in minimising the potential risks of informal work for middle‑class informal households who may not be eligible to social assistance. They further suggest that middle‑class informal workers may have a solvent demand for social insurance so that, if informality-robust social insurance schemes were made available to them, remittances could potentially be channelled to finance the extension of social insurance to the informal economy.

  • 10-May-2021

    English

    Social Protection Systems Reviews

    We advocate for a systems approach to the extension and reform of social protection programmes and financing tools: coherent programmes, co-ordinated institutions, shared administrative systems, and an efficient allocation of financial resources.

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  • 10-May-2021

    English

    Inclusive societies - Analysis

    Around 70% of the world’s workers depend on the informal economy for their livelihoods. Most of them live and work in low and middle-income countries, where extending and adapting social protection systems is challenging.

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  • 4-May-2021

    English

    Key Indicators of Informality based on Individuals and their Household (KIIbIH)

    The KIIbIH portrays informality both at the individual and household levels. It takes into account not only the employment status of workers, but also the socio-demographic and economic status of their households

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  • 1-April-2021

    English

    Platform on investment and productive transformation in Africa

    Even before the COVID-19 crisis stopped the continent’s economic growth in its tracks, Africa was facing a deficit in domestic and foreign productive investment. Levels were too low to either match the needs of a fast growing, increasingly urban, working-age population, or improve the insertion of the continent in the global economy.

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