The long-term implications of the COVID-19 pandemic and recovery measures on environmental
pressures
A quantitative exploration
This paper analyses the long-term effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and associated
government responses on the environment. It uses large-scale modelling to investigate
the impact of sectoral and regional shocks to the economy until 2040. These detailed
economic impacts are linked to a range of environmental pressures, including greenhouse
gas emissions, emissions of air pollutants, the use of raw materials and land use
change. The short-term reductions in environmental pressures are significant: in 2020,
energy-related greenhouse gas and air pollutant emissions dropped by around 7%. Environmental
pressures related to agriculture observed a smaller drop in 2020. The reduction in
the use of non-metallic minerals, including construction materials, reached double
digits. From 2021, emissions are projected to increase again, gradually getting closer
to the pre-COVID baseline projection levels as growth rates recover fully. But there
is a long-term – potentially permanent – downward impact on the levels of environmental
pressures of 1‑3%.
Published on May 21, 2021Also available in: French
In series:OECD Environment Working Papersview more titles