Economic Outlook for Southeast Asia, China and India 2015: Strengthening Institutional Capacity
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The Economic Outlook for Southeast Asia, China and India 2015, prepared by the OECD Development Centre and the ASEAN Secretariat, was officially launched by the OECD Deputy Secretary-General at the ASEAN Business and Investment Summit in Nay Pyi Taw, Myanmar on 13 November. Apart from covering growth forecast and macroeconomic challenges for the region, this edition focuses on strengthening institutional capacity – which includes reviews of medium-term plan implementation, public sector reform efforts and the state of informality in the region.
While the outlook for many OECD countries remains subdued, Emerging Asia is set for healthy growth over the medium term, according to the latest report. Annual GDP growth for the ASEAN10, China and India is forecast to average 6.5% over 2015-19. The region remains exposed to domestic and external risks, however, that make continued reform, regional integration and the strengthening of institutional capacities critical. The Outlook sees the large ASEAN-5 economies – Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand and Viet Nam – sustaining their growth momentum over the medium term, led by Indonesia (6.0%) and the Philippines (6.2%). Economic prospects for Brunei Darussalam and Singapore are stable, while Cambodia, Lao PDR and Myanmar are set to speed ahead with average annual growth exceeding 7%.
This report also informs several dialogue initiatives of the Development Centre, such as the Asian Regional Roundtable (ADB-OECD-AMRO) and the annual EMnet session on Southeast Asia.
Main Findings and Policy Recommendations (PDF)
www.oecd.org/dev/asia-pacific
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Social Cohesion Policy Review of Viet Nam
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The Doi Moi reform process, which started in 1986, set Viet Nam on a high growth path with the emergence of a large middle class. There has been remarkable progress in poverty reduction, but, the majority of the middle classes are still in the informal sector, deprived of adequate social protection. There are questions about the extent to which recent achievements have been translated into well-being for all groups of the population and how structural transformation is impacting various forms of social cohesion.
The Social Cohesion Policy Review of Viet Nam provides a picture of the state of social cohesion in the country through three lenses: social inclusion, social mobility and social capital, and discusses implications for employment, social protection, education, health and fiscal policies.
The report was launched on 28 October in Hanoi, with the Ministry of Labour, Invalids and Social Affairs and the Institute of Labour and Social Affairs.
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Policy Dialogue on GVCs, Production Transformation and Development
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On 28-29 October the Ministry of International Trade and Industry of Malaysia hosted the third Plenary Meeting of the OECD Policy Dialogue on GVCs, Production Transformation and Development in Kuala Lumpur.
Policy makers from 20 countries from Asia, the Americas, Africa and Europe, representatives from the private sector, academia and international organisations, discussed the main challenges and opportunities that the future of manufacturing poses to countries in terms of jobs, skills, innovation and localisation of economic activities. During the debate particular attention was given to the upgrading opportunities of SMEs and the key challenges for policies, as well as the trends in the electronics industry. Participants expressed strong support to strengthen measurement capabilities and welcomed the capacity building session on TiVA (OECD/WTO Trade in Value Added Database), organised to discuss interpretation of this newly generated data.
Participating countries also discussed the results of the Initiative’s Working Group on Country Studies, and welcomed the proposed framework for the new policy assessment and guidance tool (Production Transformation Policy Reviews- PTPRs), developed to support the knowledge sharing process on countries’ experiences in diversification and upgrading.
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