08/09/2020 - Although OECD Composite leading indicators (CLIs) for August continued to strengthen from the Covid-19 crisis lows, the pace of recovery has slowed and CLIs remain below the levels recorded prior to the initial COVID-19 outbreak.
The moderation in the pace of growth in CLIs was seen across all OECD major economies, especially in France, where the indicator has improved only marginally in the last two months.
A similar moderation has also occurred in all major emerging economies, except China, where the rate of expansion of the CLI (for manufacturing) remains stable, and also in Brazil where the CLI continues to strengthen.
With uncertainty persisting around the possibility of future mitigation measures, the CLIs should be interpreted with care, particularly when assessing month-on-month growth rates as underlying data used in their construction may be more volatile and subject to greater revision than normal. As always, the magnitude of the CLI should be regarded as an indication of the strength of the signal rather than as a measure of the
degree of growth in economic activity.
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Turning points of CLIs tend to precede turning points in economic activity relative to trend by approximately six months. The horizontal line at 100 represents the trend of economic activity. Shaded triangles mark confirmed turning-points of the CLI. Blank triangles mark provisional turning-points that may be reversed.
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