This strategic foresight report assesses the interaction between demographics, economic
development, climate change and social protection in six countries in East Africa
between now and 2065: Ethiopia, Kenya, Mozambique, Tanzania, Uganda and Zambia. The
report combines population projections with trends in health, urbanisation, migration
and climate change and identifies the implications for economic development and poverty.
It concludes by identifying policies to address seven grand challenges for social
protection planners in national governments and donor agencies which emerge from the
projections. These include: eliminating extreme poverty; extending social insurance
in a context of high informality; the rapid growth of the working-age population,
in particular the youth; adapting social protection to urban settings; protecting
the poor from the effects of climate change; harnessing a demographic dividend; and
substantially increasing funding for social protection.